Part I of our discussion covered the fact that the economic “story” has been anything but consistent, and it’s ok to not know what’s going on with precision. However, a person, a business, or your local or state government can still plan wisely. Whether or not they...
In economics, sometimes it’s ok to say “I’m not sure...” In economics, sometimes it’s ok to say “I’m not sure...” The broader economic story is normally more clear at this point in the business cycle. When we can tell a consistent story, we feel more confident in...
State revenues and cash balances in Arizona are doing better than in recent years, but not as well as during past expansions. We are still seeing improvement though. Up until the 2008 recession Arizona outperformed the U.S. in good times and in bad. 2008 was an...
The most recent U.S. jobs report was spectacularly weak. Only 38,000 new jobs were added in May. Even if we account for a reported labor strike, the adjusted number would only be a little north of 70,000... The most recent U.S. jobs report was spectacularly weak. Only...
I am often asked what indicators to follow in order to gauge what is going on in the Arizona economy. One decent indicator is state tax collections since it picks up a lot of activity that recently happened... I am often asked what indicators to follow in order to...
The Tucson region has struggled in recent years, not only with budget issues, but also with basic economic growth. Until recently, being dependent on defense industry spending has helped the region sustain higher wage jobs. Now, this has become a major risk to the...
The Arizona job numbers for April are out and they look good. And, it looks like the trend will continue in future months... The Arizona job numbers for April are out and they look good. And, it looks like the trend will continue in future months. When looking at...
Investment in a community’s physical infrastructure is one of the purest forms of economic development. This is an area that most people agree is a proper role for government, when efficiently planned... Investment in a community’s physical infrastructure is one of...
The U.S. jobs report for April was relatively weak. Only 160,000 jobs were added, well below expectations of 200,000-250,000. The “feel good” range for a trend is 200,000-300,000 new jobs each month. However, no one month tells a full story and no one data point...
There has been a decent amount of chatter regarding the design of the Governor’s Office of Economic Opportunity. I have been asked a number of times if I thought it was a good idea for Arizona, or simply political show. Here is an abbreviated review and opinion of...