I have been asked almost daily for an economist’s perspective on the stock market. Here are my general thoughts.
1) It is indeed overvalued when compared to the economic data.
2) Being overvalued does not mean a correction is right around the corner.
3) When economic growth is moderate the likelihood of additional shocks occurring that could disrupt the market is low.
4) The Trump team is the greatest unknown.
5) If a decent tax reform package is implemented along with continuing regulation reform the market should keep going a little longer.
6) The recent run will have consequences; even a mild economic downturn will now have a significant impact.
7) It will slow and fall far at some point, but good luck with the timing.