The question of the week is: “How will the stock market respond if Clinton vs. Trump wins?” I believe people are overthinking the issue.
The traditional approach would be to look at the respective tax plans and give an economic bump to the candidate with the biggest tax cuts. That may have worked in the past but now there is a problem; uncertainty/unpredictability etc. is likely a bigger risk to the market than a continuation of the federal government’s current direction, as misguided as it may be. The fact that Trump’s campaign has gone so far off the rails allows the market to partly price a Clinton presidency into the equation several weeks early.
Overall, I am not expecting a major shift in stocks as it relates to the November election if the current polling holds. However, we are overdue for a modest correction based on regular economic factors, and some may attribute this future volatility to the election propaganda of that day. Let’s see what happens over the next few weeks though. I am sure there are emails to be read.